In Summary
Claudia Sheinbaum strikes a fine balance between deference and confrontation in her negotiations with Trump
Mexican policy has so far proved resilient in the face of unpredictable geopolitical shifts
Should relations between the US and Mexico deteriorate, Europe and the Netherlands must be ready to welcome Mexico into a strategic partnership that reduces dependence on major powers
Latin America Regional Update | Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo enjoys unprecedented levels of popularity. The successor to the equally popular Andrés Manuel López Obrador (better known as AMLO), she began her six-year term on 1 October 2024 as Mexico’s first female president. The intellectual and technocratic Sheinbaum is in her element, despite her limited international experience and the rapid geopolitical shifts and constant threats from Trump: is the Mexican president anticipating or reacting to these geopolitical shifts?
From 1929 to 2000, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held uninterrupted power in Mexico, meaning that for a long time elections were little more than a formality. Peña Nieto served as president on behalf of the PRI from 2012 to 2018. Morena, which emerged from a protest movement, has radically transformed Mexican politics. Following AMLO, the party is now once again providing the president, this time with even greater support at national and regional level.
Although Sheinbaum will largely continue Morena’s policies, there are also clear differences compared with her predecessor. Far-reaching reforms to the judicial system are intended to ensure that Supreme Court judges are soon elected democratically. This also means that all sitting judges will be replaced. Supporters hope this will reduce corruption within the judicial system.
Opponents point to the possibility that expertise will be lost, and with it the quality of the administration of justice, particularly in the short term. There are also concerns about the influence of organised crime through this new process, although it could be argued that such influence may actually be greater at present and could therefore diminish. In any case, it is an interesting development that will also be closely watched in other countries.
Another striking feature is the tougher policy on crime. In this respect, Sheinbaum represents la mano dura as opposed to the much more moderate – and heavily criticised – approach, referred to as the ‘abrazos, no balazos’ (hugs, not bullets) discourse, of her predecessor AMLO. The fact that crime is rife in Mexico became clear once again when, earlier this month, the remains – including bones and hundreds of items of clothing – of tens to hundreds of missing persons were found on a ranch in Teuchitlán. According to El País, some 125,000 people are still missing in Mexico.
The biggest challenge comes from the Trump administration. Its unpredictability and constant threats – including import tariffs and border controls – are undoubtedly causing the Mexican government headaches. A recent OECD report predicts a significant economic contraction for Mexico this year, whereas the economy was still growing last year.
The idea that NAFTA has severely weakened American industry at the expense of the Canadian and Mexican economies lies at the heart of Trump’s rhetoric in favour of import tariffs, alongside a multitude of other reasons that do not always appear to be related to one another or to trade. Many therefore believe that the import tariffs are an end in themselves.
At the same time, Sheinbaum’s well-considered, firm and explicitly defiant stance commands respect, both internationally and at home. Whereas previously a somewhat derisive – following Trump’s renaming of the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America – and tougher stance had been adopted, Sheinbaum has quickly struck the right balance in her dealings with Trump.
She was even complimented on this by Trump himself. Consequently, Sheinbaum is frequently praised in the media for her approach. Compared to leaders such as Gustavo Petro (Colombia), who had to qualify his statements on disrespectful deportations, and Justin Trudeau (Canada), Sheinbaum appears considerably more thoughtful and strategic.
It is not only in terms of diplomatic skills that Sheinbaum stands out positively; her policies also appear well-equipped to counter Trump’s accusations. For example, in the area of drug-related crime – and particularly fentanyl – which is causing major problems in the United States. Sheinbaum has demonstrably shown that she takes a hard line against this. As described in NRC, Mexico voices the complaint that the country, in turn, is being flooded with American-made weapons. Sheinbaum’s tough stance does not appear to be a direct response to Trump’s criticism—after all, this policy direction had already been adopted earlier as a domestic response to the situation. Nevertheless, it could be presented or ‘framed’ as a bargaining chip against Trump.
In addition, there is a growing realisation that the Mexican economy relies too heavily on the US—a view that is becoming increasingly widespread globally. ‘Plan Mexico’ and the ‘Made in Mexico’ campaign are examples of this. These plans are intended, respectively, to diversify the economy and to strengthen domestic production. Morena has also, since its inception, been a counterweight to the neoliberal policies of the PRI in the 1980s. This is reflected, amongst other things, in its opposition to the privatisation of the state-owned oil company PEMEX. In this way, nationalism is combined with a desire to remain in control.
Nevertheless, Mexico cannot completely detach itself from the United States, nor can it achieve strategic autonomy on its own. As Michel Michaloliákos has previously argued on this platform, strategic autonomy is an illusion. This applies just as much to Mexico – and, given its geographical location, even more so. Mexico must therefore seek strategic partnerships, but cannot sever its ties with the US. Sheinbaum therefore faces a considerable challenge in navigating these new waters to identify strategic areas for cooperation whilst pursuing domestic independence.
This is also where the relevance for the Netherlands and Europe lies. The Netherlands and Europe can capitalise on Mexico’s vulnerable geopolitical position and offer a strategic alternative via a Third Way. As a regional power, the world’s twelfth-largest economy and currently characterised by low unemployment, the ‘Plan Mexico’ initiative and a stable peso, Mexico is highly attractive not only as a trading partner but also as a strategic geopolitical partner. Should relations between the US and Mexico deteriorate, we must be ready to bring Mexico on board as part of a strategic alliance aimed at reducing dependence on the major powers. Uncertainty thus presents new opportunities.
Claudia Sheinbaum can also serve as a role model for the Netherlands and Europe with regard to the diplomatic tactics she employs to outmanoeuvre Trump. Time will tell whether these tactics remain effective, or whether Trump’s unpredictability will ultimately throw a spanner in the works. It is advisable to keep a close eye on and analyse how the dynamics between the two leaders develop in the future.
So far, Claudia Sheinbaum has tactfully anticipated the shifting geopolitical dynamics and, in particular, Trump’s new administration. Her popularity ratings will be difficult to sustain in the long term. Nevertheless, a combination of policies in the economic (Plan Mexico and Made in Mexico), social (cash transfer programmes) and security spheres appears well-calibrated to address both international shifts and domestic challenges. Anticipation in times of uncertainty is the order of the day.
This article was translated, find the original here.