Our first podcast is out! We apologise: not about middle powers, but worth your while. The US midterms are more than a domestic test for Trump. These determine how predictable America will be for Europe and the rest of the world. HIG analysts Rajeev Lachmipersad and Michel Don Michaloliákos talk you through the midterms with America expert Kenneth Manusama and analyst Cristina Pessina. They discuss a Democratic Congress that tries to rein in Trump, an Iran war and Israel support that alienate voters on both sides, and an America that will not simply return to its old role. Their conclusion: normalisation is an illusion. Europe must prepare for a more capricious ally.
Five key points
👉 Israel divides both parties: it has become a litmus test, driven by younger voters on the left and the right.
👉 The Iran war is decisive: it clashes with everything Trump promised about “no more forever wars”.
👉 Trust will not fully recover: even under a Democratic victory, expect a more transactional relationship, and Europe must stand on its own feet.
👉 Five colours, two movements: AOC-style Democrats in the centre, and on the Republican side a struggle between “creedal” and “heritage” nationalists.
👉 No normalisation: expect a Congress that slows Trump down, but also chaos and a possible escalation in Iran right after 3 November.
About our guest
Kenneth Manusama is an expert on America and the guide through this episode. He explains how the US system works in practice. He shows how the president and Congress share foreign policy and also breaks the two parties down into “five colours”, from the Democratic Socialists of America to AOC-style centrists on the left, and from Rubio-style hawks to J.D. Vance’s “heritage” nationalists on the right. He is currently writing a book on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Michel Don Michaloliákos is co-founder of The Hague Institute for Geopolitics (HIG). As a geopolitical and geo-economic analyst (Europe, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean and Red Sea region), he shares his analyses in the podcast, in articles, and in lectures. Through masterclasses and consultancy, he helps policymakers and businesses. He can be booked as a speaker and conference chair via HIG and Sprekershuys. He is a regular guest in the media, including Nieuwsuur, Eva Jinek, Nieuwsweekend, RTL, and NRC.
Rajeev Lachmipersad is one of the co-founders of The Hague Institute for Geopolitics (HIG). Within the institute, Rajeev focuses as an analyst on the broad geopolitics and geo-economics of India. He draws on his extensive knowledge of Indian geography, civilization, history (especially since independence in 1947), and internal power politics, all of which influence India’s geopolitical strength. At the same time, he uses his many years of experience in economic governance to analyze how countries deploys its economic resources and instruments to achieve its geopolitical goals.
Chapters
1️⃣ [00:00:00] The first English-language HIG podcast: what to expect from the midterms, and will they be fair?
2️⃣ [00:03:00] What changes in US foreign policy? Israel, Iran and the tariffs on Canada
3️⃣ [00:04:00] Israel as a lightning rod: a litmus test for Democrats and Republicans alike
4️⃣ [00:06:30] The Iran war as the decisive factor: “Where did America First go?”
5️⃣ [00:08:00] Is trust in the US permanently damaged? Article 5 and a more transactional relationship
6️⃣ [00:12:00] The five colours of American politics: from Democratic Socialists to MAGA
7️⃣ [00:18:00] Millennials as the largest voting bloc, and AOC as the bridge in the centre
8️⃣ [00:24:00] President versus Congress: War Powers, tariff authority and the Russian diesel deal
9️⃣ [00:30:00] Chaos, not normalisation: a lame-duck Trump and the expected escalation in Iran
🔟 [00:34:00] Races to watch, the localisation of the elections and closing thoughts
